[目的]研究基于GIS平均气温空间分布推算模型.[方法]以多年平均气温为研究对象,应用普通克里格插值法(OK)、反距离权重插值法(IDW)、样条插值法(SPLINE)以及混合插值法(MLR)对海南岛18个长期气象观测站1979～2008年逐月气温资料进行了空间栅格化,通过不同插值方法的对比分析,选择针对海南岛多年平均气温相对最优的插值方法.[结果]通过对海南岛近30年的平均气温4种插值方法的误差分析,发现插值法精度顺序为MLR＞ IDW＞ OK＞ SPHNE.基于海南岛DEM影像的“多元线性回归+残差插值”的小网格插值法即混合插值法(MLR)在海南岛平均气温空间插值效果最好;海南岛平均气温空间分布特征除具有明显的南高北低的纬度地带性以及随海拔升高逐渐降低的垂直地带性外,沿岸地区气温呈略高于内陆地区趋势;海南岛各月气温递减率在0.38～0.85℃/100m,年均气温递减率约为0.74℃/100m,在不同区域不同时间条件下,气温对于海拔高度的递减率不同.[结论]该研究为海南岛农业气象要素连续分布状况获取和建立精确空间分布推断模型提供依据.%[ Objective] The research aimed to study prediction model for spatial distribution of the average temperature based on GTS. [ Method] Average temperature over the years was research object. Based on Ordinary Kriging (OK), Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) , SPLINE and Mixed Interpolation (MLR) , monthly temperature data from 1979 to 2008 at 18 meteorological observation stations in Hainan Island were conducted spatial grid treatment. Via contrasts and analyses on different interpolation methods, the optimum interpolation method on average temperature over the years in Hainan Island was selected. [ Result] By error analyses of the four interpolation methods on average temperature in recent 30 years in Hainan Island, it was found that accuracy was MLR > IDW > OK > SPLINE. Spatial interpolation effect of MLR was the best on average temperature in Hainan Island. Spatial distribution of the average temperature in Hainan Island had obvious south-high-north-low latitudinal zonality and vertical zonality of gradually declining as altitude rise. In addition, temperature along coast was slightly higher than that in inland. Decrease velocity of the temperature in each month in Hainan Island was 0.38 -0. 85 ?/100m, and decrease velocity of the annual average temperature was about 0.74?/100m. In different areas, decrease velocity of the temperature as altitude was different at different time. [Conclusion] The research provided basis for obtaining continuous distribution situation of the agricultural meteorological factor and establishing accurate prediction model of the spatial distribution in Hainan Island.
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