Based on a preliminary analysis of the development status of Shaanxi fruit industry, the cold chain logistics needs of kiwi fruit, one of the distinctive fruils of Shaanxi Province, were modeled and simulated by the system dynamics method- II was predicted that the required quantity of refrigerated kiwi fruits in Shaansi wouid be up to 800 000 tons till the year of 2020. In view of the fruits cold chain iogistics demand of Shaanxi in future, some strategies, involving the construction of cold chain logistics network system, the advancement of the level of cold chain logistics management information system, the construction of fruit cold chain logistics security barriers, the improvement of the cold chain logistics training facilities, the enhancement of the cold chain logistics professionals supporting policies, were proposed in order to promote the fruit industry of Shaanxi transforming from resource advantages into economic advantages ,.and stimulate the coordinated development of local economy.%基于对陕西果业发展现状的初步分析后,运用系统动力学方法对陕西特色水果之一的猕猴桃冷链物流需求进行SD建模与模拟,预测至加20年,陕西全省猕猴桃需要冷藏的数量可达80万t.针对未来陕西果品冷链物流的需求,从构建冷链物流网络体系、提升冷链物流管理信息化水平、构筑果品冷链物流安全屏障、完善果品冷链物流配套设施、加强冷链物流专业人才培养、加大地方配套政策支持力度6个方面进行相应的对策设计,对推动陕西水果产业从资源优势向经济优势转化,促进全省经济的协调发展具有重要的现实意义.
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