根据云南蒙自气象站1951～2005 年的月平均气温资料.运用R/S分析方法,对该站气温变化特征进行了诊断分析.结果表明,不同季节的Hurst 指数均大于0.5,说明存在明显的Hurst 现象,反映近55 年来蒙自站气温变化存在趋势性成分.近55年来,蒙自气温呈现明显的增暖趋势,特别是夏季、年平均及冬季增温速度高于春、秋季节.年平均气温的变异点出现在1997年,且1997年后增温的趋势性成分相对较高.%Based on monthly average temperature data in Mengzi Meteorological Bureau from 1951 to 2005, the local climate characteristics oftemperature variation were analyzed by using R/S analysis method. The results showed that Hurst indexes were greater than 0.5 in different seasous, this indicated that there were obvious Hurst phenomenon, which showed that the trendy ingredients were existed in Mengzi region during recent 55 years. In recent 55 years, the temperature increased remarkably in Mengzi region, moreover, the warming rate in summer, winter and annual average was higher than that of spring and autumn especially. Moreover,the abrupt change emerged in 1997 and there was higher trendy ingrodient after that.
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