Using correlation analysis and multielement gradual regressive analysis, the onset risk months of swine plague in Erdos region and the meteorological elements related to its incidence rate were confirmed and its monthly incidence rates in onset risk months in this region were predicted by utilizing significantly correlated meteorological elements. The results showed that the onset risk months of swine plague in this region were Mar. , Apr. , May, Aug. , Sep. and Oct.; in these months, its monthly incidence rate showed extremely significantly positive correlation with absolute values of monthly temperature range of monthly highest average temperature and extremely highest temperature and showed significantly positive correlation with monthly average wind velocity and absolute values of monthly temperature range of temperature, extremely lowest temperature and evaporation capacity.%采用相关分析和多元逐步回归分析法,确定鄂尔多斯地区猪瘟的发病风险月以及与猪瘟发病率相关的气象要素,并利用显著相关的气象要素对该地区猪瘟发病风险月内猪瘟的月发病率进行预测.结果表明,该地区猪瘟发病风险为3、4、5、8、9、10月;在发病风险月内,猪瘟月发病率与月平均最高气温月较差绝对值、极端最高气温月较差绝对值呈极显著正相关,与月平均风速、气温月较差绝对值、极端最低气温月较差绝对值和蒸发量月较差绝对值呈显著正相关.
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