[ Objective] Climate change and its effect on agriculture in Haidong agricultural region were studied. [Method ] Based on meteorology and agricultural observation data in Haidong agricultural region from 1961 to 2009, the characteristics of climate change and its effect on agriculture were analyzed, and the possible effect of future climate change on Haidong agriculture was predicted according to the future climate scenarios provided by down-scaling climate model. [ Result] Annual mean temperature in Haidong agricultural region during 1961 -2009showed obvious increase trend, with the rising rate of 0.37 ℃/10 a; annual mean precipitation and annual total sunshine duration went down slightly, with the climatic tendency of -3.70 am/10 a and -27.55 h/10 a, respectively; climate extreme event occurred less frequently but became severer in recent 49 years. In future 100 years, temperature in Haidong agricultural region would go up significantly, with the slight increase of rainfall, and climate change would affect agricultural production environment, arrangement, structure and productivity, namely increasing yield fluctuation of agricultural production, cost and investment and changing arrangement and structure. In order to adapt climate change, it was necessary to adjust agricultural structure, strengthen management, improve agricultural infrastructure, adopt new technology,increase the resistance ability of agricultural production to climate change actively and designedly, so as to improve adaptability, furthest reduce loss and realize potential benefit. [ Conclusion] Our study could provide references for the decision of government and agricultural sector.%[目的]研究青海海东农业区气候变化及其对农业的影响.[方法]利用1961～2009年青海海东农业区有关气象、农业观测资料,对农业区气候变化特征及气候变化对农业的影响进行了分析,并根据气候模式输出数据经降尺度处理生成的未来气候情景,预估未来气候变化对海东农业产生的可能影响.[结果]1961～2009年海东农业区年平均气温呈显著的升高趋势,升温率为0.37℃/10a,降水量和日照时数略有减少,气候倾向率分别为-3.70mm/10a和-27.55h/lOa,近49年来极端事件发生日数虽有减少但程度加重.未来100年海东农业区气温上升显著,降水略有增加,气候变化会对农业的生产环境、布局、结构和生产力产生影响,将使农业生产产量波动增大、布局与结构改变、成本与投资增大.为适应气候变化,应积极地有计划地进行农业结构调整,加强管理,改善农业基础设施,采用新技术,提高农业生产对气候变化不利影响的抵御能力,增加适应能力,最大限度地减少损失和实现潜在的效益.[结论]该研究为政府和农业部门决策提供依据.
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