首页> 中文期刊> 《北京财贸职业学院学报》 >商品市场的金融化对价格波动性的影响研究——以纽约商品交易所(NYMEX)WTI原油为例

商品市场的金融化对价格波动性的影响研究——以纽约商品交易所(NYMEX)WTI原油为例

         

摘要

This paper is committed to the financialization of commodity markets affect the price volatility, especially with respect to hedging transactions, speculative trading will affect the price volatility. In terms of the empirical application, we considered that the variable is a crude oil futures prices, we used the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) WTI crude oil-related data, the net position of non-commercial participants in the net spread, non-commercial participants, non-the total commercial positions of the participants, non-commercial participants" positions and positions the ratio of the total, and the ratio of the positions and non-commercial participants in the futures market trading volume. The empirical studies have shown that non-commercial participants, speculation will increase the volatility of oil prices. Or put it in a broader concept, the financialization of oil makes the oil more like an investment tool rather than a commodity, and increased its price volatility. Secondly, the market price trend will be some common views, the price will enter a more stable channel after a period of frequent trading. Of course, this may be due to data issues need to be further argument.%本文致力于研究商品市场的金融化如何影响价格的波动性,特别是相对于对冲交易,投机交易将如何影响价格的波动性。在本文的实证应用方面,我们考虑的变量是原油期货价格,在这里我们使用纽约商品交易所(NYMEX)WTI原油相关的数据,非商业参与者的净价差,非商业参与者的净头寸,非商业参与者的头寸总额,非商业参与者的头寸和头寸总额的比率,和非商业参与者的头寸和期货市场交易量的比率。实证研究表明,非商业参与者的投机活动将会增加石油价格的波动性。或者把它放人一个更广泛的概念,石油的金融化使得石油更像是一种投资工具而不是一种商品,并增加了其价格的波动性。其次,经过一段频繁交易期之后,市场对价格趋势将会得到一些共同的看法,价格将会进人一个更加稳定的通道。当然这点可能由于数据问题需要进一步论证。

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