我国铁路水害频发且损失巨大，如何有效防范，已成业界难题，更为运营部门汛期工作重点。但铁路水害泛指由降水或其他水源造成断道、限速事故的灾害，预测预报缺乏针对性。鉴于此，首先，借鉴水利学水害概念，丰富了铁路水害的机理内涵，再结合铁路调研，明确了预测目标的外延；其次，基于京广线湖（南）广（东）区段水害气象、地质与设施条件统计，分析了铁路水害的时空分布特征，建立了致灾因子指标体系；最后，针对降水这一关键诱发因子，筛选出1 h与日降雨量两个相关性最强的计算参数，建立了logistic概率预测模型。模型检验表明：其统计学检验通过，且对于灾害实际情况预测效果较好，可为铁路水害风险管理及防范措施的制定提供参考。%Railway water disasters occur repeatedly,and cause great losses.How to effectively monitor and prevent the disasters is a work focus of the operation unit during flood seasons and is a difficult problem.However, railway floods generally refer to disasters of off road or speed limit accidents caused by precipitation or other water causes,whose prediction and forecast lack pertinence.In view of this,first of all,the mechanism connotation of railway water disaster is enriched according to the conservancy connotation of water disaster.Combining with rail-way research,the extension of the forecasting target is defined.Then,based on statistics on meteorological,geolog-ical and facilities conditions of water disasters along Jing-Guang railway,temporal and spatial distribution character-istics of railway water disasters are analyzed and a disaster factor index system is established.Finally,according to the critical precipitation inducing factor,two calculation parameters with the strongest correlation are selected as 1 h and the daily rainfall,and a logistic probability prediction model is established.Model test shows that:its statisti-cal test is passed,and the actual situation of disaster prediction is good,which could provide reference for railway flood risk management and prevention.
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