TC catastrophe is a complex non-linear result of multiple factors.The risk of catastrophe is positive-ly related to the impact of typhoon under the premise of stable reaction capability.The possibility of serious impact from catastrophe increases when typhoon is stronger and probability is smaller.Multivariate compound distribution function are introduces to discuss TC joint risk probability in wind and rain.Based on the fact that climate stochas-tic events possess equivalence property over time and space,a joint probability risk assessment model is established by using TC Haikui as an example.The marginal distributions of the model are the maximum precipitation and the maximum wind speed,and the determining factor of risk is the exceedance probability of co-occurrence in wind and rain.The results suggest that the simultaneous of the exceedance probability in wind and rain describes TC risk lev-el accurately;especially in terms of the high risk area with sever catastrophe impact.This leads to a meaningful clue for the accuracy of extreme events risk assessment using meteorological data.%热带气旋成灾是致灾因子、受灾对象的物理暴露与脆弱性以及应对灾害能力等共同作用的复杂的非线性过程。在应灾能力无显著变化的前提下，受灾风险大小及灾情轻重常与热带气旋风雨的影响强弱相一致。热带气旋风雨越大，越趋于小概率事件时，其超出承灾体忍受能力或设防标准可能性越大，导致严重灾害的可能性越大。所以，可根据热带气旋风雨强度的出现可能性大小确立风险阈值判据，以此评估影响风险程度。该研究应用了气象随机现象在时间域与空间域分布上具等价性的原理，以热带气旋“海葵”对上海地区影响为例开展试验，建立了以日降水量区域极值、极大风速区域极值为边际分布的热带气旋风雨影响强度联合分布模型。结果显示，根据联合分布模型得出的热带气旋影响风雨共现超越概率能较好地表征影响风险程度，尤其对受灾严重的高风险区有相当确定的鉴判。这为基于气象资料提高极端事件影响评估的准确性提供了有价值的思路，也为规避及转移风险或合理利用资源提供客观依据。
展开▼
