Dongchuan is prone to agricultural drought disasters in Yunnan. According to the historical disaster data of the townships in Dongchuan from 2000 to 2007, application of risk analysis theory, the utility theory, factor-component analysis and other theoretical approaches, and based on detailed valuation of the agricultural drought hazard-formation risk degree, the agriculture hazard-affected bodies vulnerability and the psychological response of the local populace to agricultural drought disaster respectively, the comprehensive evaluation model of agriculture drought disaster risk in Dongchuan is settod up. This paper shows initially that the risk degrees of the agricuhural drought disaster in Dongchuan District increase gradually form south to north, west to east. The four existing risk regions of the agricultural drought disaster are found. They are very high risk zone, high risk zone, medium risk zone and low risk zone. And there is an obviously positive correlation among the comprehensive risk degree index of the agricultural drought disaster, the natural hazard-formation risk degree index, the agriculture hazard-affected bodies vulnerability degree index and the psychological response value index of the local populace to agricultural drought disaster in Dongchuan.%昆明市东川区是云南省农业旱灾危害较为严重的区域之一.利用2000-2007年东川区各乡镇历史灾情等数据资料,应用风险分析理论、效用理论、因子-成份分析方法等理论方法,在分别研究致灾风险度、承灾体易损性及地域人群对农业旱灾心理反响等基础上,构建了东川区农业旱灾风险评价模型.初步揭示出东川区农业旱灾风险度呈现出自南向北、自西向东逐渐增强的空间态势;识别出极高风险区、高风险区、中风险区和低风险区等4个农业旱灾风险区;发现东川区各地农业旱灾综合风险度、致灾风险度、承灾体易损度以及地域人群对旱灾的心理响应值等指数之间普遍存在着明显的正相关.
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