以灾害学、城市管理理论为指导,用层次分析法(AHP)为分析决策工具,选定涉及化工城市安全的17个致灾因子,得出了地震灾害、化学事故、环境污染事故及恐怖袭击是危及化工城市安全的4个关键因子.指出原发性或继发性化学事故以及由此产生的次生、衍生灾害将是化工城市面临的最大危机,并提出了对策措施.%In terms of catastrophology and the principles of urban management, 17 disaster-causing factors related to security of chemical industrial cities are selected and analyzed by use of Analytic Hierarchy Process ( AHP) as tool of decision-making analysis. Four key factors that endanger chemical industrial cities, such as earthquake disaster, chemical accidents, environmental pollution incidents and terrorist attacks are obtained. It is pointed out that primary or secondary chemical accidents and the resulted secondary disasters will be the most dangerous factor for chemical industrial cities. In the paper, the corresponding countermeasures are proposed.
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