Based on the analyses of the characteristics of medium and long term load forecasting in power system and the shortcomings of conventional grey prediction model,this essay proposes a method based on data smoothing and residual correction which is based on linear regression,to improve the accuracy of the load forecasting.Numerical examples and analyses in a region validate that the improved prediction model can obviously improve the prediction accuracy of medium and long term power load forecasting.%基于电力系统中长期负荷预测的特点,针对常规灰色预测模型存在的不足,提出一种基于数据平滑处理,以及线性回归残差修正的改进灰色预测方法。对某地区算例比较和分析表明,本方法可明显提高中长期负荷预测精度。
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