• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Mathematical Problems in Engineering >Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Method Based on Improved Exponential Smoothing Grey Model
【24h】

Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Method Based on Improved Exponential Smoothing Grey Model

机译：基于改进指数平滑灰色模型的短期电力负荷预测方法

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

In order to improve the prediction accuracy, this paper proposes a short-term power load forecasting method based on the improved exponential smoothing grey model. It firstly determines the main factor affecting the power load using the grey correlation analysis. It then conducts power load forecasting using the improved multivariable grey model. The improved prediction model firstly carries out the smoothing processing of the original power load data using the first exponential smoothing method. Secondly, the grey prediction model with an optimized background value is established using the smoothed sequence which agrees with the exponential trend. Finally, the inverse exponential smoothing method is employed to restore the predicted value. The first exponential smoothing model uses the 0.618 method to search for the optimal smooth coefficient. The prediction model can take the effects of the influencing factors on the power load into consideration. The simulated results show that the proposed prediction algorithm has a satisfactory prediction effect and meets the requirements of short-term power load forecasting. This research not only further improves the accuracy and reliability of short-term power load forecasting but also extends the application scope of the grey prediction model and shortens the search interval.
机译：为了提高预测精度，本文提出了一种基于改进的指数平滑灰色模型的短期电力负荷预测方法。首先通过灰色关联分析确定影响电力负荷的主要因素。然后，使用改进的多变量灰色模型进行电力负荷预测。改进的预测模型首先使用第一指数平滑方法对原始电力负荷数据进行平滑处理。其次，使用与指数趋势相吻合的平滑序列，建立具有最佳背景值的灰色预测模型。最后，采用逆指数平滑法恢复预测值。第一个指数平滑模型使用0.618方法搜索最佳平滑系数。预测模型可以考虑影响因素对功率负载的影响。仿真结果表明，所提出的预测算法具有令人满意的预测效果，满足短期电力负荷预测的要求。该研究不仅进一步提高了短期电力负荷预测的准确性和可靠性，而且扩展了灰色预测模型的应用范围，缩短了搜索间隔。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Mathematical Problems in Engineering》 |2018年第3期|3894723.1-3894723.11|共11页
  • 作者

    Mi Jianwei; Fan Libin; Duan Xuechao; Qiu Yuanying;

  • 作者单位

    Xidian Univ, Sch Mechanoelect Engn, Xian 710071, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;

    Xidian Univ, Sch Mechanoelect Engn, Xian 710071, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;

    Xidian Univ, Sch Mechanoelect Engn, Xian 710071, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;

    Xidian Univ, Sch Mechanoelect Engn, Xian 710071, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号