In this paper, the meteorological elements of trend forecast method at Shanghai Hongqiao Airport is summarized and analyzed by the weather case. Research shows that the trend forecast is indicating the significant changes about the four elements surface wind, visibility, weather and clouds within 2 hours. The spatial and temporal scale is small and the local characteristics are obvious. In the trend forecast at Hongqiao airport, the important changes in wind are mainly by strong thunderstorms, strong cold air south and afternoon local wind in the spring and summer. Visibility change is mainly caused by short-term visibility in the morning, upstream advection fog and frontal fog, or heavy rain and so on. The weather phenomenon is mainly caused by thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. The low cloud is mainly caused by the precipitation of low clouds or low clouds and fog or advection of low clouds. The trend forecast focused on the each factor is different, while the numerical prediction in the field of airport trend prediction is still not ideal. We must give full play to the role of forecasters, to use the scale analysis, statistical analysis and forecasting methods to solve the near experience forecasting the "last-mile" problem.%本文分析总结了上海虹桥机场趋势预报的气象要素预报方法,并通过天气实例进行分析验证.研究表明,趋势预报是预报机场未来2h风、能见度、天气现象、云四大气象要素的重要变化情况,时空尺度小,局地特征明显;虹桥机场趋势预报中,风的重要变化主要由强雷暴来临、强冷空气南下、春夏季午后局地风突变引起,能见度主要有早晨能见度短时降低、上游平流雾及锋面雾、强降水等3种情形,天气现象主要由雷暴和强降水引起,云主要是降水性低云、平流低云、与雾有关的低云.每种要素的趋势预报侧重点各不相同,数值预报在机场趋势预报领域表现仍不理想,必须充分发挥预报员作用,运用中尺度分析、统计分析和预报经验等方法解决临近预报"最后一公里"问题.
展开▼
