对农村土地利用未来情景和农村聚落用地合理规模的预测分析,是挖掘农村土地整治潜力和优化农村土地利用空间格局的基础.以位于黄淮海平原的山东省禹城市为例,从耕地聚落比值优化的角度探讨未来农户不同兼业化程度情景下农村聚落用地的合理规模.结果表明,种植业收入是影响禹城市农户收入的重要因素,平原农区农村人口和聚落的合理规模测算需要综合考虑区域耕地规模;当前禹城市农村地区耕地聚落比值较低(3.9),绝大部分村庄耕地聚落比值在2～6之间,占村庄总数的75％左右,区域耕地聚落比值亟须优化和提高;在农户兼业化现状情景和深化发展情景下,合理耕地聚落比值分别为9.95和15.99,农村聚落合理用地规模分别为6 638和4 278 hm2,可腾退潜力分别为8 121和10 481 hm2;未来禹城市农村聚落用地整治增地率约为55.02％～71.01％,但现实整治增地潜力很大程度上取决于未来城镇化发展情景与土地制度改革的创新力度.%Analysis for prediction of future scenarios of land use in rural areas and reasonable scales of land use for rural settlements is the foundation for excavating the potential of land integration and optimizing the spatial pattern of rural land use.A case study of Yucheng of Shandong Province was performed to explore reasonable scales of land use for rural settlement in the future scenario of fanning becoming a part-time job for most farmers from the aspect of optimization of the ratio of cultivated land to residential land.Results show:(1) The fanning income is a major factor affecting the income of a farm household,and to predict a reasonable scale of land use for rural settlement,it is necessary to take into account comprehensively the scale of cultivated land in the region studied;(2) The current ratio of cultivated land to residential land in Yucheng is quite low or 3.9 on average and about 75％ of the villages lingered in the range of 2-6,which indicates that it is essential or critical to raise or optimize the ratio;(3) In the future scenario of farming becoming a part-time job and its in-depth development,the reasonable ratios of cultivated land to residential land will be 9.95 and 15.99,respectively,and the reasonable scale of land use for rural settlement in Yucheng will be 6 638 and 4 278 hm2,respectively,with the potential of reclaiming 8 121 and 10 481 hm2 of vacated residential land;And (4) the study predicted that the realignment of rural settlements may expand the farmland by 55.02％-71.01％ in Yucheng in 2020,but in reality,the potential depends by a large margin on development of urbanization and the strength of reformation of the land policy in the future.
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