传统理论认为贸易自由化会促进出口产品的质量升级，但我国加入W TO后的情况却并非如此。文章基于贸易政策不确定性的视角，利用我国加入W TO前后美国对我国产品进行关税调整这一自然实验，通过倍差法分析了贸易自由化对我国出口产品质量的影响。研究表明：（1）在贸易自由化的过程中，贸易政策不确定性的下降会拉低我国的出口产品质量，且这一结论在改变质量测度方法、控制成本效应以及使用不同的产品属性、贸易对象和样本的情况下依然稳健；（2）贸易政策不确定性主要是通过广延边际上的质量调整降低了我国出口产品的总体质量，即在贸易政策不确定性下降幅度越大的产品中，有越多的生产低质量产品的企业进入出口市场；（3）在集约边际上，存续企业并未针对贸易政策不确定性的下降做出及时的产品质量调整，从而无法改变我国的产品质量在短期内下降的趋势。文章为我国如何在推行贸易自由化的同时实现出口产品质量升级提供了启示。%There is a conventional view that trade liberalization would promote the quality upgrading of export goods ,which is ,however ,at odds with the case after China’s access to the WTO .From a perspective of trade policy uncertainty ,this paper employs the natural experiment that U .S .A has adjusted its tariff policy for China’s products before and after China’s access to the WTO to analyze the impact of trade liberalization on the quality of China’s export goods by difference-in-difference model .It draw s the results as follow s :firstly ,in the process of trade liberalization ,a decline in trade policy uncertainty has degraded the quality of China’s export goods to U S. .A ;and this result is robust under the conditions of different quality measurement ,the control of costs effects and the use of differentiated products ,trade partners and samples ;secondly ,the decline in trade policy uncertainty degrades the overall quality of China’s export goods mainly through quality ad‐justment in terms of extensive margin ,that is to say ,under trade policy uncertainty ,more decrease in trade policy uncertainty leads to the access of more firms producing low-quality products to export markets ;thirdly ,as for the intensive margin ,surviving enterprises cannot make timely adjustment to products quality according to the decline in trade policy uncertainty ,thereby failing to shift the trend of a decrease in the quality of China’s export goods to U S. .A in the short run .It has an implication for China about how to improve the quality of export products during the process of trade liberalization .
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