On the basis of double-curve model and grey model, a new combined weighting model is built on the condition of the minimal absolute values of errors. The formula derivation and actual measurement results show that the predictive error of the combined weighting model is reduced in comparison with those of the two former methods. Meanwhile, on the basis of the actually surveyed data and predicted values derived from the combined weighting model, the ratio of weak intercalated layers compression amount to total settlement is regarded as evaluation factor, and by the change curve of evaluation factor, tendency of subgrade stability is evaluated. Finally, the simplicity and feasibility of this method is validated through actual examples.%基于双曲线模型和灰色模型,采用误差绝对值加权和最小的准则,创建了新的加权组合模型,理论推导和实测结果表明,该模型较前两种模型预测误差降低.同时,借助加权组合模型对软弱夹层压缩量与总沉降量进行预测,并以两者的比值作为评价因子,依据评价因子变化曲线对路基稳定性的整体变化趋势做出评判,经实例验证,该方法简单、可行.
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