通过阐述战略预警特性，指出预警分析必须采用更加贴近决策需要的分析模式，进而论述“机会分析”理论所主张的情报分析塑造未来的能力以及通过分析技巧降低决策难度和扭转分析者劣势地位等核心观点，并得出结论：“机会分析”理论所倡导的分析模式契合了预警分析对于政策相关性和决策驱动性的要求，是提升预警分析应用价值的有效途径。最后以中情局评估“古巴导弹危机”为例，进一步论述该理论在预警分析中的应用要点。%Beginning with elaborating the characteristics of strategic warning, this article points out the necessity of adopting policy-rele-vant and policy-motivated modes in warning analysis. Then, the article expounds the essentials advocated by "opportunity analysis", which include the analysis' role to shape the future and the analyzing techniques taken to facilitate the policy-making process and to combat the analysts' structural disadvantages. Based on the above reasoning, the article comes to the conclusion that the analyzing mode represen-ted by "opportunity analysis" is an ideal option to meet the requests for policy relevance by warning analysis, and therefore an effective way to improve the application value of warning analysis. In the end, CIA's evaluation of"Cuba Missile Crisis" is exemplified to further explain the key points of applying the theory to warning analysis.
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