The factors affecting collision probabilities between formation-flying satellites are discussed and generalized, for the purpose of increasing the accuracy of the collision detection and forecast. A difference equation of Hill' s equation is derived for the Kalman filter, which is used to estimate the target satellite' s status. Based on these equations, such four factors as model errors, measurement errors, malfunctions and accidental events are analyzed in detail. Several simulation scenarios are also executed for the factors. The simulation results show that the controller always-functioning malfunctions is the worse collision factor, which needs further researches for a specific collision avoiding scheme.%为了便于更准确地进行编队卫星碰撞检测和预报,对影响星间碰撞概率的因素进行了归纳和讨论.给出了编队卫星碰撞概率计算公式,并从Hill方程推导了离散差分方程,建立Kalman滤波器,用于估计编队飞行状态.在此基础上,对引起编队卫星发生碰撞的模型误差、测量误差、故障和意外因素四个方面进行了分析.最后,针对各因素设置了典型仿真想定并进行了仿真,仿真结果显示控制器常开故障是影响最大的因素,工程应用中需要针对它进行专门的防碰撞方案研究.
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