以2005—2014年天津市统计年鉴的相关数据为基础,采用系统动力学方法对城市交通拥堵状况进行系统仿真模拟,并从宏观角度分析机动车尾号限行政策对城市交通拥堵的影响效应.结果表明,在城市交通需求增长速度过快且城市交通供给无法与之相匹配的情况下,可以采取实施机动车尾号限行政策来抑制小汽车的出行需求,从而能够在一定程度上缓解城市交通拥堵的状况,其中单双号限行政策的实施效果最为显著.基于模型仿真结果,提出了合理限制机动车的拥有和使用,科学规划城市交通布局,大力促进公共交通优先发展,积极倡导市民文明绿色出行等治理建议.%Based on the data of Tianjin statistical yearbook from 2005 to 2014,this paper uses the system dynamics method to simulate the urban traffic congestion situation,and analyzes the effect of the motor vehicle tail number limited policy on urban traffic congestion from the macroscopic point of view.The results show that in the case of urban traffic demand grow th rate is too fast and the supply capacity can not be satisfied,it can implement the motor vehicle tail number limited policy to curb the travel demand of the car,by controlling the number of tail number to achieve the goal of adjusting the total amount of ground traffic,to a certain extent,it can ease the situation of urban traffic congestion.To promote the sustainable and healthy development of urban transport system in Tianjin City,based on the analysis of the simulation results of the model,it is proposed that the reasonable suggestions should be done for future,w hich is rationally restricting the ow nership and use of motor vehicles,scientifically planning the layout of urban traffic,vigorously promoting the priority development of public transport,and actively promoting the civilized green travel.
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