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汉中市土地利用变化驱动力分析

     

摘要

以1996—2011年社会经济数据为基础,定量分析了汉中市土地利用变化的驱动力.通过相关分析法、主成分分析法和曲线回归分析法,选取社会经济等18个指标,分析土地利用变化的主要驱动因子,阐明其驱动机制.结果表明,社会经济驱动力综合得分由2003年以前的波动变化转向持续上升,2007年综合得分为正值(0.0623),呈快速上升态势;非农业人口的增长、三次产业结构的调整(尤其是农业内部结构优化和第三产业的发展)及城镇化建设对汉中市土地利用变化有较大的影响;国家土地政策对用地类型起到了一定的引导和干预作用,用地类型由单纯的经济效益向经济‐生态效益相结合的用地类型转变.%Based on the socio‐economic data from 1996 to 2011 , this paper analyzes the driving forces of LUCC in Hanzhong City . With the uses of correlation , principal component and regression , the comprehensive analyses and contrasts of the 18 socio‐economic indexes are made to confirm the main driving factors of LUCC driving forces . The driving mechanisms of LUCC are illustrated . The results indicate that the integrate scores of socio‐economic driving forces have increased since there are tiny fluctuations before 2003 . The score is 0.062 3 in 2007 and has sharply risen . Growth of the non‐agricultural population , the three industrial structure adjustment (especially optimization of the internal structure in agriculture and the rapid development of the third industry ) and urbanization have great influence on LUCC . The national policy has played a negative role of guidance and intervention and made land use transform from a purely economic benefits to the economic‐and‐ecological benefits of land use types .

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