The articles analyses human-land relationship of pastoral village and resource load and population distribution and trends of urbanization evolution by building models from man-land relationship and population capacity of urban and urban population in future . Results show that the carrying capacity of resources is lower in pastoral village than farming and pastoral areas , the contradiction of human-land is higher in pastoral village than farming and pastoral areas . Population capacity of central town can accommodate urban population in the county in 2030 in pastoral area . The gap is larger between optimum population in central town and urban population in the county of farming and pastoral areas . The effective ways of new-form urbanization construction are determining rational urbanization strategy of the central town as the core of urbanization , improving the development ability of the central town , strengthening construction of the urban characteristics , improving the quality of the population in agricultural and pastoral areas .%从农牧村人地状态、城镇人口容量、城镇人口发展三个方面构建模型，对甘南州农牧村人地关系、资源承载、人口分布以及城镇化的演化趋势进行分析。结果表明，牧区农牧村资源承载力普遍低于半农半牧区，同时，牧区人地压力高于半农半牧区；从中心城镇人口容量和人口城镇化来看，牧区中心城镇人口容量可以满足未来城镇化的要求，而半农半牧中心城镇人口容量与未来全县的城镇总人口量差距较大。依据各县（市）资源承载力和人口分布特点，确定以中心城镇为核心的合理的城镇化策略，提高中心城镇的综合发展能力，加强城镇特色化建设，提高农牧区人口素质是甘南州新型城镇化建设的有效途径。
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