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甘肃省人口红利的经济效应分析

     

摘要

The present demographic dividend of Gansu Province is evaluated based on its demographic data . Furthermore , the relationship between economic grow th and demographic dividend is also investigated by using Cobb-Douglas production function and Eviews software . The results show that demographic dividend of Gansu Province is experiencing a period of profits w hich can promote economic development . However ,ageing of population appears to be occurring .In addition ,employed labor force makes little contribution to economic development because of inefficient labor force . The expanding employment , adjusting the industrial structure and improving the social security system are very effective to make use of demographic dividend of Gansu Province .%在甘肃省人口统计数据的基础上,按人口红利的划分标准对甘肃省人口红利现状和未来分别做了判断和预测,并以道格拉斯生产函数为基础建立模型,借助Eview s软件进行回归分析,探讨经济增长与人口红利之间的关系。结果表明,甘肃省目前处于人口红利暴利期,具有经济发展的潜在优势,但老龄化现象也初见端倪;甘肃省就业劳动力人口对经济发展的贡献较低,劳动力利用效率不高。最后提出扩大就业、调整产业结构和完善社会保障制度是充分利用甘肃省人口红利的有效途径。

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