装备的安全服役和有效感知越来越重要,特别是对于一些高端装备复杂系统模块的退化状态预测和备用系统的有效订购是保障安全运行、提升服务质量、降低维修成本的关键.为此,分析了复杂系统退化的特点,提出了一种基于复杂系统退化机理的订购策略模型.基于状态空间特征矩阵建立系统退化过程模型,根据系统退化模型和备用系统随机交付时间构建复杂系统订购策略模型,该模型采用下订时刻作为决策变量.基于提出的复杂系统订购策略模型,存在一个唯一的使期望费用率最小化的最优下订时刻.最后,用实例验证了所提订购策略模型的有效性.%Security service and effective perception of equipment becomes more and more important, especially for some high-end equipment complex system module degradation condition prediction and efficient spare ordering is the key to guarantee safe operation, improve service quality and reduce maintenance costs. In this paper, therefore, we analyze the characteristics of the complex system and propose an order policy model based on complex system degradation mechanism. The system degradation model is established based on the condition space feature matrix. The system ordering policy model is constructed using the system degradation model and spare random lead-time, whose decision variable is the placing an order time. Based on the proposed system ordering policy model there ex-ists a finite and unique optimum placing an order time that minimizes the expected cost rate. Finally, a case study is presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed system ordering policy model.
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