Based on the systematic analysis of the composition and destablized mechanism of landslides,this paper firstly proposes the basic principle of unload-load response ratio（ULRR）,and selects the changes of the rainfall as the unload-load dynamic parameter and the average displacement velocity as the unload-load response parameter.Moreover,the relevant displacement ULRR can be used as the displacement dynamic parameter of colluvial landslides in the light of the essential principle of the ULRR theory.Besides,on the basis of the displacement dynamic parameter law of landslides,the feasibility and effectiveness of the displacement dynamic parameter in the prediction and forecast of landslides are also discussed in the paper.Meanwhile,taking the analysis of Xintan as an example,the calculation of the ULRR of the monitoring points A3 and B3 of Xintan landslide in China is completed by using the unload-load response prediction model.The results show that an abrupt jump occurs in the curve of the ULRR of the monitoring points A3 and B3 just before the landslide takes place,and the abrupt jump point agrees with the destabilized time of the landslide.All the above results prove that the ULRR theory is one of the effective nonlinear dynamic methods in the short and middle term prediction of the colluvial1andslide.%在系统分析降雨型堆积层滑坡位移与失稳动因与机制的基础上,首次提出卸加载响应比理论的基本原理.将降雨量的变化作为滑坡的卸加载参数,相应平均位移速率的变化值为卸加载响应参数,由此确定的位移卸加载响应比作为位移动力学参数,根据堆积层滑坡位移动力学规律论证了该位移动力学参数在滑坡预测预报的可行性和有效性,建立卸加载响应比预测模型.以新滩滑坡分析为例,运用卸加载响应比预测模型对新滩滑坡关键部位监测点A3、B3进行了卸加载响应比计算,发现这两点的卸加载响应比时序曲线均在失稳前发生突变,其突变时间与边坡实际失稳时间完全吻合.上述研究结果证明了卸加载响应比理论是可以应用于堆积层滑坡中短期预测预报的一种有效方法.
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