为了开展气候风险管理,近期学者们提出了气候承载力的概念.本文在分析气候承载力的概念内涵及其影响因子的基础上,从当前气候天然容量,城市气候压力和城市协调发展潜力3个方面构建城市气候承载力综合评价指标体系.以上海市为例,采用构建的城市气候承载力评价方法分析上海市2004-2013年气候承载力变化特点,并利用主成分因子分析法确定气候承载力的主要影响因子.分析结果如下:(1)当前气候天然容量指数表明上海市的气候条件劣于基准年,在研究期间呈波动状态;(2)城市气候压力和城市协调发展能力呈稳步增长状态,但协调发展能力的增长速度低于城市气候压力的增长速度;(3)总体来说,研究期间上海市气候承载力远低于基准年,且气候承载力值因受气候条件变化影响较大而处于较大波动状态;(4)基于主成分因子分析方法确定城市人口密度、人均GDP、单位生产总值能耗、工业总产值、环境保护投资、科技经费支出以及人均绿地面积为主要影响因子.结果表明,该气候承载力评价方法是可行的,它可以描述某一城市气候承载力在时域上的变化,也可以对区域气候承载力开发利用过程中存在的问题进行甄别,并可作为气候预警响应的依据,为我国建立气候安全管理机制提供技术参考.%The concept of climate carrying capacity has been proposed recently for climate risk management.Based on identification of the concept of climate carrying capacity and analysis of the relationship among its influencing factors, this study established a comprehensive assessment indicator system of climate carrying capacity from aspects of the climate situation, the level of climate usage, and the development potential of cities. Taking Shanghai City as a case study, we developed a quantitative assessment model of climate carrying capacity. The climate carrying capacity and its influencing factors were analyzed and discussed in relation to the period 2004-2013. The results were as follows. (1) Current climate natural capacity indicator showed that the climatic situation of Shanghai City was inferior to its base climatic value and it had been in a state of fluctuation. (2) The climate stress and urban coordinated development capacity indicators increased steadily, but the growth rate of the urban coordinated development indicator was less than the growth rate of urban climate stress. (3) The climate carrying capacity was far lower than the benchmark value and it had been in a state of fluctuation mainly due to the effect of current climate situation. (4) According to a principal component analysis, seven factors of urban population density, per capita GDP, energy consumption per unit GDP, total industrial output value, investment in environment protection, spending on science and technology, and green area per capita were main influential factor of climate carrying capacity. It was proved that the proposed system for assessment of climate carrying capacity of a city was feasible. It can be used to describe the spatiotemporal changes of cities, and identify problems of regional climate carrying capacity associated with their development and function. This assessment system can provide a reference for the construction of an early warning system of climate carrying capacity for cities.
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