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Evaluation method of urban land population carrying capacity based on GIS:A case of Shanghai, China

机译：基于GIS的城市土地人口承载力评价方法-以上海为例

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摘要

Although research on population carrying capacity has made significant progress, research on urban carrying capacity still has a weak theoretical basis and uses, imperfect regulation mechanisms and estimation methods. This study proposes a new method for evaluating urban population carrying capacity based on spatial analysis with GIS, which utilizes spatial classification and spatial grading of land use. The results demonstrate that urban construction and industrial development subspaces have most of the population, accounting for about 86.4% of the total population carrying capacity, across 40.7% of the total land area. Therefore, urban construction and industrial development subspaces are the centers of the population concentration, industrial agglomeration and wealth concentration in the Shanghai metropolis. The agricultural production and ecological protection subspaces, as noncommercial and ecological conservation areas of the metropolis, should not carry too much industrial development or added-value activities. In addition, under the current conditions of socio-economic and technological development in China, the gross population carrying capacity of Shanghai is estimated to be about 27.1732-30.3308 million persons, based on 2009 data. The actual population of Shanghai was 22.1028 million persons in 2009; thus, the population can continue to grow before reaching the population carrying capacity. The estimation in this paper takes into account both the internal disparities in carrying capacity of heterogeneous land spaces and composite factors such as natural resources, the environment, economic resources and social resources. Consequently, this method not only addresses defects in the existing research and estimation methods but also improves the credibility of the estimate.
机译：尽管人口承载力研究取得了长足的进步，但城市承载力研究仍缺乏理论基础和应用，调控机制和估算方法还不完善。这项研究提出了一种利用GIS进行空间分析的城市人口承载力评估的新方法，该方法利用了土地利用的空间分类和空间等级。结果表明，城市建设和工业发展子空间拥有最多的人口，约占总人口承载能力的86.4％，占土地总面积的40.7％。因此，城市建设和工业发展子空间是上海大都市人口集中，产业集聚和财富集中的中心。作为大都市的非商业和生态保护区，农业生产和生态保护子空间不应进行过多的工业发展或增值活动。此外，根据中国的社会经济和技术发展现状，根据2009年的数据，上海的总人口承载能力估计约为2717.32-3303.08万人。 2009年上海实际人口为2210.28万人。因此，人口可以在达到人口承载能力之前继续增长。本文的估算考虑了异质土地空间承载力的内部差异以及自然资源，环境，经济资源和社会资源等综合因素。因此，该方法不仅解决了现有研究和评估方法中的缺陷，而且提高了评估的可信度。

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