针对金属矿山地表沉陷灾害的预警问题，应用可拓学理论，建立基于物元和关联函数的矿山沉陷评价预警模型。选取沉陷密度、沉陷面积率、断层密度、覆层强度指标、深厚比、下沉系数6个预警指标，划分4级预警模式。根据各指标特征建立关联函数并计算关联度，结合德尔菲-层次分析法确定指标权重。选取我国4个典型金属矿山开展模型验证，获得各矿山地表沉陷的预警等级，与矿山实际情况对比分析认为评价结果具有较好的可信度。该方法操作简单，结果直观，为金属矿山的地表沉陷预警提供了新的思路。%Aiming at the early-warning problem of surface subsidence disaster in metal mine, an assessment and early-warn-ing model for mine subsidence was established based on the matter element and correlation functions by using the extension theory. Six early-warning indexes were selected, including the subsidence density, the subsidence area ratio, the fault densi-ty, the overburden strength index, the ratio of depth and thickness and the subsidence coefficient, and the early-warning mode was divided into four grades. The correlation functions were established according to the characteristics of each index, and the correlation degree was calculated, then the index weight was determined by Delphi-AHP method. The model verifica-tion was carried out by selecting four typical metal mines in China, and the early-warning grade of surface subsidence in each mine was obtained. Through the contrastive analysis with the actual situation of mines, it showed that the assessment results have a better reliability. The method is simple to operate and has an intuitive result, which provides a new idea for the early-warning of surface subsidence in metal mine.
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