针对化工事故模糊系统,基于三角模糊数和事故树建立事故定量分析模型.运用该模型进行案例分析,确定储油罐体发生火灾爆炸事故的概率分布,指出概率的波动范围、平均事故概率,得出基本事件的模糊重要度,进行模糊重要度排序,明确该化工系统危险源分布的状态,指出导致事故发生的最危险路径,给出该危险路径发生的模糊概率,以上为企业管理人员制定安全措施提供重要的参考依据.该模型对于企业进行事故预测、事故原因分析、制定安全对策、风险投资分析具有重要的意义.%Accident quantitative analysis model for chemical accident fuzzy system based on triangular fuzzy number and fault tree was established. This model was applied to analyzing a case, determining the fire and explosion accident probability distribution of oil tank, pointing out that the fluctuation range of probability and the average accident probability, getting the fuzzy important degree of basic events, sorting fuzzy degree of importance, clearing the state of dangerous source distribution about the chemical system, and pointing out the most dangerous path that causes the accident. All of above provide important reference for corporate executives to develop safety measures. The model is important for accident prediction, analyzing the cause of the accident, developing safety countermeasures and analyzing risk investment.
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