To formulate the emergency evacuation plan of ships in ports under strong wind scientifically and efficiently and reduce the risk of evacuation,the ship emergency evacuation model is established based on the gray cloud and the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).The gray cloud model is adopted to substitute the traditional whitenization weight function,thus the fuzziness and randomness of evacuation priority information can be effectively reflected.The three-scale method is adopted to construct the judgment matrix so as to determine index weight,where the calculation process of the weight is simplified.Ships can be classified into predefined levels according to their comprehensive clustering results;the evacuation order of the ships with the same priority is determined according to actual conditions.Twenty four berthing ships in an area of Tianjin Port are taken for example,and the result verifies the effectiveness of the proposed model.%为科学有效地制定大风天气下港口船舶应急疏散方案,降低疏散风险,建立基于灰云和改进层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)的船舶应急疏散模型.该方法用灰云模型取代传统的白化权函数,能有效反映疏散优先级信息的模糊性和随机性.采用三标度法构造判断矩阵,确定指标权重,指标权重计算过程被简化.根据船舶综合聚类结果将其归入预先设定的级别中,同一级别船舶疏散顺序依据具体情况确定.对天津港某港区24艘靠泊船进行模拟计算,结果验证了该模型的有效性.
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