根据商洛市2010—2014年区域环境噪声的昼夜等效声级监测数据，运用灰色系统理论，建立灰色GM（1,1）模型，并用平均相对误差检验、均方差精度检验、小误差概率检验三种方法对所建模型的精度进行检验。应用检验合格模型预测得到商洛市2015年和2016年昼间一类区的噪声值分别是45．1 dB和43．24 dB，商洛市2015年和2016年夜间二类区的噪声值分别是40．83 dB和39．3 dB，并进一步得到2010—2016年商洛市区域环境噪声呈下降趋势。%According to equivalent sound level monitoring data of regional environmental noise during 2010-2014 in Shangluo,by gray system theory, gray GM(1,1) model is set up,and three methods to test the accuracy of the model is used,namely the average relative error test, the average variance accuracy test and small error probability test. It is predicted that regional environmental noise by this model in 2015 and 2016 in Shangluo is 45.1dB and 43.24 dB during the day in Area I,and 40.83 dB and 39.3 dB during the night in Area II. It shows that the trend of regional environmental noise, during 2010-2016 in Shangluo is decreasing.
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