In order to improve evaluation accuracy of flight safety risk,grey system theory and comprehensive integration weight method are combined to develop a quantitative evaluation method considering uncertainties of factors affecting safety risk of flights.An index system is established from four aspects of crew,equipment,environment,and management.The weight of each index is determined by the comprehensive integrated weight method based on the principle of minimum entropy.A model is developed based on gray system theory,which is used to evaluate flight safety risk,and define the main indices which affect safety of flights.Rationality and feasibility,and effectiveness of this method are validated from a case study.The results show that the method can solve the problem of uncertainties in evaluation processes to the maximum extent.%为了进一步提高航空公司飞行安全风险评估结果的精确度,考虑到飞行安全风险诸多影响因素的不确定性,将灰色系统理论评估方法和综合集成赋权法相结合对飞行安全风险进行定量评估.从机组、设备、环境、管理4个方面建立飞行安全风险评估指标体系,并通过基于最小信息熵原理的综合集成赋权法确定各评估指标的权重.运用灰色系统理论建立评估模型进行飞行安全风险评估,找出影响飞行安全的主要指标;通过实例验证所用方法的可行性、有效性.结果表明,所用方法可行、有效,能够最大限度地解决评估过程中的不确定性.
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