为评估换乘效率对轨道交通分担率的影响,引入拥挤感知系数、环境修正系数及换乘次数惩罚系数,将客观换乘时间转化为感知换乘时间,并以此为基础构建了轨道交通分担率模型.利用北京市第4次出行调查数据对该模型进行标定,探讨了轨道交通网络换乘效率改善对不同出行距离乘客分担率的影响.结果表明:换乘次数、换乘走行时间、换乘等待时间及换乘环境的改善能够有效地提高轨道交通的分担率,尤其是对中短距离乘客的影响巨大;换乘拥挤是影响中长距离乘客选择轨道交通的重要因素,当换乘通道通过能力及换乘站台容量较小时,拥挤感知系数快速增加,严重降低轨道交通网络的分担率.%To evaluate the impact of transfer efficiency on the market share of urban rail transit, perceived transfer time is proposed and obtained from objective transfer time by introducing parameters of crowding, environment, and transfer times. Based on the perceived transfer time, a market share model of urban rail transit is established. After estimating the model with the survey data in The Fourth Beijing Traffic Survey Report, changes of the market share of urban rail transit in different riding distance are discussed with the improving of transfer efficiency. Results show that factors, including transfer times, transfer walking time, transfer waiting time, and transfer environment, have a positive effect on improving the market share of urban rail transit, especially in the short-haul passenger market. While factors, which can reflect crowding, are mainly considered by passengers with middle-and-long distance travel. When the capacity of transfer channel or platform is very small, the perceived cost of crowding will increase quickly, and the market share of urban rail transit will reduce sharply.
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