长期以来,作为城市规划研究热点,城市土地利用和交通之间相互影响的研究相对脱节.近年来,该状况逐渐得到改观,研究人员开始将交通规划与城市用地布局方式相联系.本研究主要模拟给定城市区域土地利用的时空变化过程,帮助正确认识及处理城市交通发展与土地利用的相互关系.研究针对美国佛罗里达州Orange County 1990年与2000年土地利用类型的变化,利用元胞自动机(CA)在微观土地利用,空间格局等方面的优势,采用地理信息系统动态模型来实现海量数据的获取、储存以及更新.同时,借助MatLAB软件的数学计算能力,开发出基于逻辑回归的元胞自动机土地预测模型.基于实际土地利用的模拟结果表明,该模型充分利用元胞自动机的特点及优势,合理考虑土地利用系统中时空变量的复杂性,结果可靠,为正确理解土地利用变化提供了很好的帮助.%For a long time, interactions between land use and transportation have been one of the research hotspots in urban planning, which however, has not been investigated in much detail until recently. This paper started from spatial changes of regional land use, with an objective of understanding the relationship between trip generation and urban land use. Cellular automata and geographical information system rntechniques were used to store and update the spatial data dynamically. In addition, MATLAB software was rnadopted to conduct the logistic regression using land use/land cover data from Orange Country, Florida,rnU. S. ( 1990 and 2000) . With fully utilizing the advantages of cellular automaton models, simulation results rnindicate the enhenced reliability of the model, which consequently assists to understand evolution of urban rnland uses.
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