基于对碳汇、碳源测度方法总结整理，估算出2000-2011年各省市农业系统碳汇碳源量，采用聚类方法对碳汇、碳源区域进行归类研究，并采用回归分析法对碳汇、碳源影响因素开展研究。结果表明，农业系统碳增汇量26个省份大于零，除受自然条件影响外，还与经济发展水平呈5%显著性负相关关系；各地区碳汇水平影响因素有明显的地方特征，其中农作物的固碳能力高于草原、果园等；各地区影响碳排放水平因素主要是农业能源，其次是畜禽饲养、秸秆燃烧和农业投入品。研究结果对各地区制定和发展低碳农业提供参考。%Based on summarizing measurement methods of carbon source and sink, the individual provincial data from 2000 to 2011 were calculated, and cluster analysis was used to classify regional difference. Regression analy-sis was also used to analyze the influence factors of carbon source and sink. The results shows and carbon seques-tration are higher than carbon emission in 26 provinces, the agricultural systems of carbon sinks are affected by nat-ural conditions, as well as the status of economic development with significant negative correlation at 5% level. The influence factors of carbon sinks at regional level have significant local characteristics, the carbon sequestration ca-pacity of crop pants are higher than products from grassland and orchard. The emission factors mainly come from energy for agriculture, livestock feeding, straw combustion and agricultural inputs.
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