结合哈尔滨市中心区交通对策研究项目,为了更好的解决城市中心区内部交通运行状态问题,建立了反推“四阶段法”的停车需求预测方法,立足城市规划角度,从用地性质、容积率和建筑密度等因素对中心城区进行特征片区的划分,在确保动态交通顺畅的前提下,针对不同性质用地确定不同道路的合理的服务水平,按照容量控制法进行了停车需求量的预测.最后,对停车需求预测结果进行评价,指出基于服务水平下的停车需求预测方法能够反映了实际的道路交通资源满足情况.%Integrated with program of transportation policy in the center of Harbin and with the purpose to solve the problem of transportation operation in the city center, this thesis establishes the parking demand forecasting method- Anti-Four-Step. Based on city planning, the thesis makes a division to the feature zone in the city center according to the factors of land usage, plot ratio building density. With the premise of unobstructed dynamic transportation, the thesis also determines the different road level of services according to the different land usage makes a parking demand forecasting with the method of capacity control. Finally, based on service levels, it can be concluded that parking demand forecasting method can reflect the situation of road traffic resources to satisfy by evaluating the result of parking demand forecasting.
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