In this area, shore beach varies slowly but constantly with different erosion and deposition rates which cause different offshore shoal resource stock. Based on the variation characteristics of muddy tidal flat, this study aimed to build an applicable model for the quantitative assessment of the reclamation intensity and development potential in this area. And then, three different types of coasts namely, Laobagang to Dongzaogang deposited coast, Dongzaogang to Haozhigang erosive coast and Haozhigang to Lianxinggang stable coast in Nantong of Jiangsu were taken as the typical area for model application and analysis. Reclamation dataset from the year of 2007 to 2013 were obtained from 7 scenes of Landsat ETM+ remote sensing image. Based on these dataset, development status and future developing potential of reclamation in three coasts were quantitatively evaluated. Results indicated that reclamation intensity level for Laobagang to Dongzaogang coast and Haozhigang to Lianxinggang coast was at the third degree under five level strength evaluation systems; in these two regions, pressures of reclamation were moderate and they would have slight influence for the subsequent development of the coasts;reclamation intensity for Dongzaogang to Haozhigang coast reached the fourth level; this region faced a more strong reclamation pressure and should enhance the intensive use of reclamation area. Moreover, because of the huge difference of offshore storage resources and developing rate, the three coasts respectively have 8 years, 1 year and 11 years of development potential. This quantitative method for assessing development status and potential of reclamation can provide references for assessing the reclamation intensity and scientifically predicting the development potential of the muddy coast.%在考虑岸滩的冲淤变化特性、不同岸段冲淤速率差异以及岸外滩涂资源存量差异的基础上，扩展定义了适用于淤泥质海岸的围填海强度与潜力定量评价模型，并以2007-2013年江苏南通海岸老坝港-东灶港淤积岸段、东灶港-蒿枝港侵蚀岸段和蒿枝港-连兴港稳定岸段的围填海造地工程为对象，进行了围填海开发状况定量评价分析及开发潜力预测。结果表明：在以5级为上限的强度评价体系下，2013年老坝港-东灶港、蒿枝港-连兴港岸段的围填海开发强度为3级，围填海压力中等，对岸段的后续开发有一定影响；东灶港-蒿枝港岸段的围填海强度等级为4级，围填海压力较强，应注重围填海域集约利用。由于岸外资源存量的差异以及围填海开发速率的差异，三段海岸未来的可供开发年数预测分别为8年、1年和11年。该评价方法可为定量评估淤泥质海岸围填海开发强度、实现围填海开发潜力科学预测提供参考。
展开▼
