提高导弹落点预报精度是反导雷达的重要研究内容，采用轨道直接外推的方法给出的落点预报精度低，且不能给出落点的误差分布。采用 Lambert 算法进行初始定轨，采用扩展卡尔曼（EKF）进行滤波处理，采用协方差分析描述函数法（CADET）进行落点预报，在预报落点的同时，提供落点的误差分布。仿真计算结果表明，该方法落点预报精度高，落点预报的圆概率误差准确，是一种有效的地基雷达弹道导弹落点预报方法。%It is an important activity for the early-warning of ballistic missile to calculate in real-time the trajectory of missile. The method of trajectory extrapolation can only predict an impact point of low accuracy, also without error distributions. In this paper, the initial trajectory is determined with Lambert algorithm, data is filtered with EKF, the impact point is predicted with the covariance analysis describing equation technique (CADET), and the error distributions are provided. The simulation results indicate that, the method in the paper predicts an impact point with high accuracy and exact CEP, and is an effective way to predict the impact point of ballistic missiles.
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