针对输变电工程建设的诸多不稳定因素与复杂情况所造成的造价不确定问题,结合输变电工程特点,分析工程造价内容与风险识别,给出输变电工程造价概率分布函数和蒙特卡洛算法框架,构建基于蒙特卡洛法的输变电工程造价风险评估模型.并对模型进行计算机仿真计算,得出变电站工程的造价风险,以及工程结余率为80%时的工程造价.%The cost of power transmission project construction is uncertain due to the instable factors and complex situation. In combination with the characteristics of the power transmission project,the content and risk identification of project cost are analyzed. The probability distribution function of power transmission project cost and the framework of Monte-Carlo algorithm are given,and the Monte-Carlo method based risk evaluation model of power transmission project cost is constructed. The computer simulation and calculation are performed for the model to get the cost risk of substation project,and project cost that the surplus rate of the project cost is 80%.
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