For effectively resolving the actual military rely on experience to evaluate equipment support plan, put forward a kind of equipment support scheme evaluation method based on Monte Carlo method, taken the process logic, the guarantee vehicle and the reliability, the influence of such factors as three sets of typical protection scheme for the case analysis, different support vehicles and other support resource allocation to the influence degree of the security work timeliness. The simulation results show that the method can clearly show the advantages and disadvantages of various sets of equipment support scheme.%为有效解决部队当前仅仅依靠保障经验对装备保障方案进行评估的问题，提出一种基于蒙特卡罗法的装备保障方案评估方法，综合考虑工序逻辑约束、保障车辆约束和飞机部件可靠性等因素的影响，对3套典型的保障方案进行了实例分析，得到不同保障车辆等保障资源配置对保障工作及时性的影响程度。仿真结果表明，该方法能够明确显示各套装备保障方案的优劣。
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