In order to judging the missile fault in missile flight, establish grey forecast method based on innovation. Use every forecasting value of GM(1,1) model to replace the oldest information, and realize metabolism. Then use forecasting sequence which including new information but keeping same length to carry out real time forecasting for telemetry key parameter of missile work status. Analyze and compare old GM(1,1) model with improved GM(1,1) model through Matlab simulation software. The results show that the improved GM(1,1) model forecasting has high precision which is easy to implement and is suitable for the real-time forecast missile fault.%为了在导弹飞行中判决导弹故障，建立基于新息的灰预测算法。利用 GM(1,1)模型的每一个预测值替换掉最老的一个信息，以实现新陈代谢，然后再以补充了新信息但序列长度不变的预测序列对反映导弹工作状态的遥测关键参数进行实时预测。通过 Matlab 仿真软件对原有 GM(1,1)模型和改进的 GM(1,1)模型进行分析比较，验证了改进后GM(1,1)模型预测精度比较高，易于实现，适合导弹故障的实时预测。
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