In order to provide the basis for the combat use of anti-radiation missile, research the kill probability of ground anti-radiation missile. Taking the anti-radiation missile kill probability as example, which is only equipped with impact fuse, the anti-radiation missile penetration process, the shock wave damage model and the damage fragments model are analyzed, the target of anti-radiation missile kill probability is calculated and much of computer simulation is run. The simulation results prove its effectiveness. Blast damage distance from the target is smaller than the fragments'. With the increasing of the shortest distance between the bombing location and the target, decrease the kill probability of the anti-radiation missile impact fuse.%为了给反辐射导弹作战运用提供依据,对空地反辐射导弹的毁伤概率进行研究.以只装备触发引信的反辐射导弹毁伤概率为例,分析反辐射导弹侵彻过程、冲击波毁伤模型及破片毁伤模型,探讨反辐射导弹对目标毁伤概率的计算方法,并对其进行计算机仿真.仿真结果表明,该模型是有效的.爆炸冲击波对目标的毁伤距离比破片对目标的毁伤距离要小;随着炸点距目标最短距离的增加,触发引信反辐射导弹毁伤概率逐渐减小.
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