在当前的国际政治中，关注及重视国际政治行为体之间相互关系的变化，是大国在复杂多变的国际政治中赢得先机的前提条件。因此，分析俄罗斯与东盟关系的前景，对于中国了解东盟地区大国关系的变化是非常必要的。本文在引入合作博弈论的基础上，以实际收益和预期收益作为合作剩余的基本考察指标，讨论了俄罗斯发展与东盟关系的前景。分析结果显示，尽管俄罗斯与东盟都有较强的发展双边关系的意愿，但因合作剩余生成的有利条件不足且上升趋势不明显，俄罗斯与东盟关系在中短期内将不会有显著的提升。当然，如果国际政治出现影响俄罗斯和东盟关系发生较大调整的新诱因时，那么俄罗斯与东盟关系有可能趋向紧密或疏离。%In the current international politics,it�s the prerequisites for a great power to win the first oppor⁃tunity in the complicated and changeable international politics that always focus on the changing relations a⁃mong international political actors. Therefore, China needs to know the prospects of Russia and ASEAN re⁃lationship in order to grasp the variation of great power relationship in ASEAN region. Through the applica⁃tion of cooperative game theory , the paper assumes real return and expected return as a cooperative surplus of key index,discusses the Russia and ASEAN relations. This paper approaches this conclusion, although Russia and ASEAN have a strong willingness to develop bilateral relations, the relations of Russia and ASEAN will still be in the level of development in the short run for lack of cooperation surplus. Of course, there is possibility of trigger in Russia and ASEAN relations, whether the current international politics ap⁃pear adjustments which affect the Russia and ASEAN relations, there Russia and ASEAN relations will trend closer or alienated.
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