文章在文献梳理的基础上辨析了两种对人口红利的认识，并从劳动力资源变化判断中国人口红利的存在性。分析发现：中国劳动年龄人口规模在2012年达到峰值9�4亿，直到21世纪40年代中期还保持在8亿以上，21世纪30年代前劳动年龄人口比重保持在60％以上，劳动年龄人口缓慢老化，劳动力资源的人力资本积累不断增加。由此判断，目前中国第一次人口红利正由聚集转向减少，并逐渐转入收获结构性人口红利阶段。但是未来收获人口红利的难度加大，将更多依赖于人力资本积累和深化劳动力市场等方面的制度改革。%This paper analysis two kinds of demographic dividend based on literature, then judge the existence of China’ s demographic dividend by the trend of labor resource. The results show: the workingage population in China reached the peak of 940 millions in 2012 , and will keep above 800 millions until the mid 2040 s, and the percent of the workingage population will hold above 60 before 2030 s. The workingage population is ageing, and the human capital of it gradually increases. Thus, China’ s first demographic dividend is turning from agglomeration to reducing, and we gradually gain the structural demographic dividend. However, it will be more difficult to gain the demographic dividend, which depends on human capital and institutional reform.
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