人类活动对区域水资源可持续利用的影响随着人类社会的发展和进步而不断增大.通过分布式水文模型和系统动力学模型的耦合,设定4大类情景,即现状保持型、农业节水型,南水北调(SNWDP)型和综合发展型(S1~S4),模拟华北平原2009~2028年水资源可持续利用的状况.结果表明:①随着社会经济的发展,四种情景下总需水量呈增长趋势,到2028年, S1~S4下华北平原总需水量分别为595.7、543.1、596.9及544.3亿m3,相应的缺水指数分别为0.5095、0.4291、0.2514及0.1771;②农业节水措施与南水北调工程的结合,才会对华北平原地下水水位的恢复、缺水程度的缓解及水资源的可持续利用产生比较显著的影响;③在人类活动影响下,华北平原缺水的问题短期内无法彻底解决,但可以通过采用南水北调与节水措施相结合来缓解缺水问题.%The influences of human activities on sustainable use of regional water resources are increasing with the development and progress of human society. Based on the coupling of the distributed hydrological model and system dy-namics model,four scenarios,namely current status quo scenario(S1),agricultural water-saving scenario(S2),South-to-North Water Diversion Project(SNWDP) scenario(S3) and comprehensive development scenario(S4) were set up, to simulate the sustainable utilization of water resources in the North China Plain from 2009 to 2028. The results showed these as follows. ①As the development of social economy,the total water demand of all scenarios will be on the rise. By 2028,the total water demands of S1~S4 will be(59.57,54.31,59.69 and 54.43)billion m3,while the water defi-cit index will be 0.509 5,0.429 1,0.251 4 and 0.509 5,respectively. ②The combination of the agricultural water sav-ing measures and the SNWDP will have more significant impact on the groundwater level recovery,the remission of water shortage degree and the sustainable utilization of water resources for the North China Plain. ③Under the influence of human activities,the water shortage in the North China Plain cannot be solved completely in the short term,but it can be alleviated by combining the SNWDP and the water-saving measures.
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