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多时间尺度分析近60年营口地区气温变化

         

摘要

Based on the observational data from meteorological stations of Yingkou region in recent sixty years, the characteristic analysis of trends, periodicity and mutation for the climatic elements such as annual and seasonal mean air temperature were performed, which was using the linear regression, wavelet transform, Mann-Kendall test and Rescaled Range analysis. The results indicated that air temperature was in an increasing trend in recent 60 years approximately in the study area, and the climatic tendency rate was 0. 32 ℃/decade for annual average temperature, and 0. 42 ℃/decade, 0. 17 ℃/decade, 0. 23 ℃/decade and 0. 47 ℃/decade for the mean temperature of spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. The annual average temperature of Yingkou region had significant periods of deferent time scale, with quasi-2years, 4years, 6 to 7years and 16 years. The period of 4 years appeared after 1980s and the period of 16 years were exploded before 1970s. During 60 years approximately, there were significant warmer years of annual mean temperature in 1998 and 2007, whereas anomalous colder summer and anomalous warmer winter was in 1976 and 2007 respectively. By the abrupt change detecting with Mann-Kendall test, the results showed that the annual mean temperature had a sudden change in 1988. Moreover, it will maintain the original warming trend in the future, especially in the spring and winter.%根据近60年的逐日气温资料,采用线性拟合、小波变换、Mann-Kendall突变检验和R/S分析等方法分析了营口地区的气温变化.结果表明:近60年营口地区年平均气温呈上升趋势,气温倾向率为0.32℃/10a;春夏秋冬四季平均气温上升速度存在差异,倾向率分别为0.42℃/10a、0.17℃/10a、0.23C/10a、0.47℃/10a.年平均气温存在准2a、4a、6~7a和16 a左右的显著变化周期,其中4 a和16 a左右周期振荡能量强大,时域中4 a年际尺度变化表现在1980年以后;而16 a年代际尺度振荡主要表现在1970年以前.显著偏暖年出现在1998年和2007年,1976年为冷夏,2007年出现暖冬.年平均气温在20世纪80年代末发生突变.预计未来一段时期营口地区气温变化依然保持增暖趋势,春季和冬季的增温尤其显著.

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