The air transportation system is a highly security demanding production system. The slight instability of the system factors that could cause significant economic losses and lead to security incidents. In recent years, with the rapid growth of air traffic, all kinds of emergencies have an upward trend, seriously affecting the stability of the air transportation system. Based on open, non-linear characteristics of the air transportation system, using Chaos theory to analyse the Chaotic phenomena of emergencies in the air transportation system; then emergency effective is proposed and the logistic equation in economics is introduced, from the microscopic perspective the emergency response capacity of the air transportation system are analyzed to improve the stability of the system. The results show that the coordination of emergency resources investment and government regulatory are necessary to make emergency effective in an ideal area.%航空运输系统是一个安全性要求极高的生产系统,系统内外的微小不稳定因素可能造成重大经济损失和酿成安全事故.近年来,随着我国航空运输量的快速增长,各类突发事件有上升的趋势,严重影响航空运输系统的稳定性.基于航空运输系统的开放性、非线性等特征,运用混沌学理论分析航空运输系统中的混沌现象；然后提出应急有效度概念并引入经济学中的逻辑斯蒂方程,从微观的角度来分析航空运输系统的应急能力,旨在提高系统的稳定性.研究结果表明应该协调各种应急资源的投入和政府调控力度,使应急有效度置处于理想区域.
展开▼
