GM (1, 1 ) model is a kind of effective method for garbage yield prediction of Shanghai, but the stochastic volatility sequence reflects in GM ( 1, 1 ) model is very hard. Gray concussion sequence GM {1} model in Shanghai in 2000 ~ 2008 junk production forecasts is used and the forecasting results show that this method can reflect the Shanghai municipal garbage output has the volatility characteristics, get higher precision of prediction.%GM(1,1)模型是上海市垃圾产量预测的一种有效的方法,但序列的随机波动性难以在GM(1,1)模型得到反映.利用灰色震荡序列GM{1,l}模型,对上海市2000年～2008年垃圾产量进行预测,预测结果表明,此方法能够反映出上海市垃圾产量所具有的波动性特性,得到更高的预测精度.
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