Jones' steam flooding production calculation model is improved, and according to this, oil production performance is analyzed and predicted in Qi-40 in Liaohe Oilfield.The results shows: ( 1 ) Through the historical fitting, the results predicted by Jones model are agreed with the production history well, and it can be used to foretell the trend of production performance changes; (2) The rate of oil production will increase as steam injection rate and steam quality get larger; (3) If the oil saturation enlarges, the rate of oil production will increase greatly.%改进了Jones蒸汽驱产量计算模型.据此,对辽河油田齐-40块蒸汽驱生产状态进行了分析和预测.结果表明:(1)通过历史拟合,Jones模型预测结果与生产历史吻合,可用来估计生产动态变化趋势;(2)注蒸汽速度和蒸汽干度的增加,会增加原油采油速度;(3)原始含油饱和度增加会明显地增加采油速度.
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