Based on the time-based effect analysis of the bridge constructional mechanical property, particular attention is paid on the analysis and establish of the structural deflection increment models on construction stage, by taking account of the time dependent factors such as strength and creep of concrete as well as relaxation of tendon, and further inducting the model synthetic correction factor and time-based effect synthetic correction factor. Then using the Monte Carlo simulation technique calculation, the time dependent probability analysis and prediction on the construction stage deflection is realized. At last, based on true bridge engineering, a detailed calculation example is presented. It proves the feasibility and applicability of the method, which can be referenced by other bridge engineering.%通过分析桥梁施工过程力学性能的时效变化,考虑徐变、钢束松弛、混凝土强度等时效因素及结构性质的变异性,并引入模型综合修正系数及时效综合修正系数,建立了施工阶段结构挠度增量的计算模型;并利用Monte Carlo模拟方法,实现了施工阶段结构挠度增量的概率时效分析及预测.根据实际工程给出详细的计算算例,证明了方法的可行性和适用性,可供其他工程参考.
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