[目的]气候变化已是一个全球性的问题,中国未来气候将继续变暖,这一变化将对中国的农业生产造成一定的影响.本文旨在研究未来气候变化对中国种植制度北界、冬小麦种植北界、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界以及热带作物种植北界的影响.[方法]依据全国种植制度气候区划指标、冬小麦种植北界指标、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界指标以及热带作物种植北界指标,采用经典的农业气候指标计算方法,分析与1950s-1980年相比,未来30年(2011-2040年)及本世纪中叶(2041-2050年)全国种植制度界限北界、冬小麦种植北界、雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产的种植北界、以及热带作物的种植北界的变化.[结果](1)与1950s一1980年相比,20112040年和2041-2050年的一年两熟带和一年三熟带种植北界都不同程度向北移动,其中一年一熟区和一年二熟区分界线,空间位移最大的省(市)为陕西省和辽宁省,且2041-2050年种植北界北移情况更为明显;一年两熟区和一年三熟区分界线,空间位移最大的区域在云南省、贵州省、湖北省、安徽省、江苏省和浙江省境内,且2041-2050年种植北移情况更为明显.在不考虑品种变化、社会经济等方面因素的前提下,这些区域由于气温升高种植制度由一年一熟变为一年两熟、由一年两熟变为一年三熟,区域内单位面积周年粮食产量可不同程度提高.(2)与1950s-1980年相比,2011-2040年和2041-2050年的冬小麦的种植北界在辽宁省、甘肃省和宁夏回族自治区都不同程度向北移动,在青海省冬小麦种植界限为西扩明显.在不考虑其它因素影响的前提下,该区域由于冬小麦替代春小麦可带来单位面积产量的提高.热带作物安全种植北界在广西省和广东省境内北移情况比较明显.而未来降水量的增加将使得大部分地区雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界向西北方向移动.[结论]到2011-2040年和2041-2050年,气候变化将会造成全国种植制度界限不同程度北移、冬小麦种植北界北移西扩、热带作物种植北界北移.而未来降水量的增加将使得大部分地区雨养冬小麦-夏玉米稳产种植北界向西北方向移动.%[ Objective ] Climate change has become a global issue. The future climate will continue warming in China and this change will affect the national agricultural production to some extent. This paper aims at studying the possible effects of future climate change on the countrywide northern limits of cropping system, the northern limits of winter wheat, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat - summer maize rotation and the northern limits of tropical crops. [Method] According to the climatic zoning indices of national cropping system, the northern limits indices of winter wheat, the northern limits indices of stable-yield in rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation and of tropical crops, the classical calculation methods of agro-meteorological indicators were adopted to analyze the changes of all northern limits in the coming 30 years (2011-2040) as well as in the middle of this century (2041-2050) compared with that during 1950s-1980. [Result] Compared with the situation during 1950s-1980, the northern limits of two-cropping system and three-cropping system during 2011-2040 and 2041-2050 would both move northward in different degree, as to the norhern limits of two-cropping system, the maximum spatial displacement would occur in Shaanxi province and Liaoning province, while the northward move during 2041-2050 would be the most obvious; as to the northern limits of the three-cropping system, the maximum spatial displacement would occur in the region including Yunnan province, Guizhou province, Hubei province, Anhui province, Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province, while the northward move during 2041-2050 would be the most obvious, too. Without considering the variety change and socio-economic factors, the regional cropping system would change from one-cropping system to two-cropping system, or from two-cropping system to three-cropping system, which would lead to the increase of annual grain yield per hectare in different degrees. Compared with the situation during 1950s - 1980, the northern limits of winter wheat during 2011-2040 and 2041-2050 in Liaoning Province, Gansu Province, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region would move northward in different degrees, while the planting limits of winter wheat in Qinghai Province would expand westward significantly. Without considering the effect of other factors, the increase of regional grain yield per hectare would be expected by planting winter wheat instead of spring wheat. The safety northern limits of tropical crops in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Guangdong Province would move northward more significantly. Yet the increase of future precipitation would make the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation move northwestward in most regions. [Conclusion ] By 2011-2040 and 2041-2050, climate change would cause northward move of northern limits of national cropping system in different degrees, northward move together with western expansion of northern limits of winter wheat, and northward move of northern limits of tropical crops. Yet the increase of future precipitation would make the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat - summer maize rotation move northwestward in most regions.
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